Part I

Chapter 1
Context

A Green Revolution for the SAT in the International Year of Deserts and Desertification (2006)

Since the advent of the Green Revolution, favorable agricultural environments in the developing world have achieved impressive gains in food production, food security and rural poverty reduction. Heightened intensification of agriculture through the use of irrigation, fertilizers and pesticides combined with high yielding varieties and, in some countries, continued price support for key cereals like rice and wheat, and direct or indirect subsidization of electrical power, water costs and other infrastructural investment continue to be the major driving forces for this success. However, many regions in less-favored, rainfed areas such as the semi-arid tropics (SAT) have not benefited equitably from these developmental drivers. There is an emerging pessimism among the world community that the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) may not be achieved by 2015. ICRISAT seeks to redress this situation.

Beneficial changes resulting from agricultural research in the village economies of the more favored regions of Asia and Latin America in the last few decades now justify a reassessment of research and development (R&D) priorities in regions that have been bypassed, especially those in the SAT. The low productivity of SAT agriculture coupled with widespread poverty, water scarcity, continuing degradation of natural productive resources (land and biodiversity), disease morbidity (particularly HIV/AIDS and malaria) and a changing global environment are further marginalizing agriculture and livelihoods in the SAT. The forces associated with continued water scarcity, land degradation and desertification remain strong and unabated in the face of rapidly increasing populations and drought-induced reductions in effective human and animal land carrying capacity. Many of the promises associated with the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) remain unimplemented, and ICRISAT needs to continue to be at the forefront of such efforts in SSA and Asia. The emerging evidence of higher impacts on poverty as well as higher marginal productivity gains from public investments, particularly in roads, markets, information technology and research in the less-favored regions suggests the need to prioritize these hitherto overlooked areas in terms of technology, institutions and policy. These observations accord closely with the analysis of the new CGIAR Systemwide priorities in which reducing the erosion of biodiversity, developing pro-poor traits in crops, livestock and trees, overcoming abiotic stresses and providing appropriate policy and marketing environments for traditional and new sources of agricultural development are recurrent major themes.

However, many old and new problems in SAT areas globally remain unresolved. Rural poverty, intensity and frequency of droughts, biotic constraints to agriculture and rural-to-urban migration continue to increase, while the natural resource base is becoming more and more degraded. Similarly, human labor resources have the potential to be seriously compromised by AIDS in the coming decades, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, India and China. Meanwhile, the balance between higher farm productivity and incomes on the one hand, and ecological sustainability in the face of emerging climatic change on the other remains critical. It is now widely accepted that whatever happens to future greenhouse gas emissions, we are now locked into global warming and inevitable changes to climatic patterns which are likely to exacerbate existing rainfall variability in the SAT and further increase the frequency of climatic extremes. It thus seems certain that global warming and associated climate changes are likely to impact on the nature of climate variability, often negatively, and hence the nature of risk associated with investment. Farmers and agricultural stakeholders will need to adapt their tactical and strategic planning to these evolving risks, but given the magnitude of the current challenges faced in the SAT, adaptation to climate change should not and cannot be divorced from current development priorities. Furthermore, agriculture in the SAT also faces new challenges relating to the lack of technological change and the unfinished transformation of subsistence-oriented agriculture. In terms of equity, efficiency and sustainability, the need to improve productivity and profitability in rainfed regions, using Integrated Genetic and Natural Resource Management (IGNRM) technologies is becoming more compelling. IGNRM is a powerful integrative philosophy of research that seeks to maximize the synergies between the disciplines of biotechnology, plant breeding, agronomy and the social sciences. Given the complexity and dynamism of semi-arid systems, one of the prime objectives of ICRISAT's IGNRM approach is to improve the adaptive capacity of the system, i.e. its ability to sustain a flow of diverse products and services that poor people depend upon, and to do so under constantly changing conditions. Research will need to strengthen the farmer's ability to manage a broad range of production factors, thus increasing his/her flexibility and ability to respond to exogenous influences. Considerable focus will be on managers themselves, helping them to achieve skills and acquire the technologies that will enhance control over their own destinies. Thus, many interactions have to be addressed. These include: direct interventions to improve the status of the natural resource base, strengthening farmer knowledge and skills, improving organizational linkages that promote better learning and sharing of ideas between the R&D community and the end-user/beneficiaries, support to micro-finance and formal credit schemes, and improving access to input and output markets. However, ICRISAT cannot and must not attempt to address all these issues as an Institute on its own. ICRISAT scientists must continue to foster and broker partnerships that provide synergies to our core mandate, thus leading to greater global impacts.

A new vision and strategy for ICRISAT to 2015

ICRISAT, as the apex dryland agricultural research organization for the global SAT areas in the Alliance of Future Harvest Centers, seeks in this document to refine its strategic thinking towards 2015 from 2010. More so, ICRISAT wishes to exemplify the importance and growing vulnerability of its mandated area --- the SAT which is home to a substantial majority of the world's truly poor people (mostly in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia) where population growth rates remain very high and the vulnerability of agriculture to the vagaries of weather and the potential of further climate change is high. Additionally, it wishes to articulate more clearly its alignment with the MDGs, CGIAR strategic directions and the new CGIAR System priorities. These are seen to be the necessary basis for future medium term planning (following the Governing Board's advice in September 2005). These are viewed presently as suitable frameworks on which a robust research strategy can be formulated to account for changes in the likely external environment for the foreseeable future.

Likewise, some refinement in earlier thinking is appropriate and timely in response to increasing globalization of markets, greater environmental insecurity, lower prices for agricultural commodities and higher fuel prices, new intellectual property right regimes, the growing importance of new research partnerships in the environment, health, ICT/KM and private sectors and finally the emergence of the Future Harvest Alliance (including associated centers such as AVRDC, IFDC) as a major driver in concerted research actions.

As an offshoot of the 2003 External Program Review recommendations, ICRISAT's administrative and executive structure was re-organized to give greater emphasis and devolution of authority to regional programs while still retaining four global themes to ensure, and more fully exploit, the international public goods nature of the Center's research output. Hence, ICRISAT's work is now planned and executed in three principal regions --- West and Central Africa (WCA), Eastern and Southern Africa (ESA) and Asia and integrated by global research themes. The regions and the themes seek to maximize the synergies which can be found between their activities. This is coordinated through the office of the DDG Research via the Global Research Committee and is clearly evident in the attendance of all the Research Committee members at all regional and global annual in-house reviews and planning meetings. In addition, synergy is also facilitated by the membership of all global theme leaders (wherever based) on the respective regional research coordination committees.

In refining its new strategic thinking, ICRISAT has adopted a fully participatory solicitation of partner opinion that is reflected in the diversity of regional and disciplinary emphases. These are expressed in seven supplementary documents that have been used as source material for this institutional expression at a global level. These documents include separate strategic papers for the three ICRISAT regions --- WCA, ESA and Asia and for the four global themes --- Institutions, Markets, Policy and Impacts (IMPI), Biotechnology (Biotech), Crop Improvement (CI) and Agroecosystems (AE). ICRISAT seeks to derive additional positive synergies from its new structural arrangements which give it the ability to act regionally and yet produce IPGs that have global impact. This type of regional/global matrix structure allows the institution to derive maximum benefit from its research investment from local-national-regional-global levels. ICRISAT seeks positively to maximize the spillovers of research knowledge from Asia to Africa and from Africa to Asia and at the same time to link its disciplinary efforts at both regional and global levels. Not only does ICRISAT wish to operate effectively at all geographic scales within its mandate area but it also intends to position itself broadly throughout the research for development spectrum. This implies both the production of upstream science and the conduct of more downstream research activities which can more directly facilitate development impact. For ICRISAT, the advantage of being broadly positioned on the research for development spectrum means that potential bottlenecks to the emergence, or application, of research outputs can be directly forestalled by ICRISAT, thereby preventing such constraints from jeopardizing fruitful outcomes from our research with our key partners.

In addition in 2001, ICRISAT completed a major, long-view research report on the “Future Challenges and Opportunities for Agricultural Research and Development in the Semi-arid Tropics” (Ryan and Spencer 2001) that details the dimensions of poverty and the dynamics of agriculture throughout the SAT. The findings of this study, along with the CGIAR's Seven Planks mission statement, guided ICRISAT's deliberations as it charted a new vision and research strategy for the next ten years (ICRISAT 2002).

Agriculture in the SAT

The semi-arid tropics (SAT) covers parts of 55 developing countries where the 75-180 day growing period has a mean daily temperature of more than 20 degrees Celsius. Based on 1996 statistics, the SAT is home to about 1.4 billion people, of which 560 million (40%) are classified as poor, and 70% of the poor reside in rural areas (Ryan and Spencer 2002). Though the environments of the SAT across continents have many similarities which are the raison d'etre of ICRISAT's existence, the differences among regions are also of great importance for planning purposes and thus ICRISAT has deemed that research planning is most appropriate starting from a regional level that is coalesced at the global level. As such, a discussion of the research context at the regional level follows in this document in order to encapsulate the logic for ICRISAT's current regional organizational structure.

To clarify in layman's terminology : The semi-arid tropics have very short growing seasons, separated by very hot and dry periods in which growth without irrigation or stored soil moisture is impossible. Natural soil fertility is often low and pest and disease pressure can be intense. Farmers face further substantive risks, even within the growing season, as there are irregular periods of drought and high evaporative demand which can seriously compromise crop productivity.

Agriculture in the region

In WCA, agriculture accounts for more than 30% of the gross domestic product, employs between 82 and 92% of the total labor force and is the main source of livelihood for the poor. Domestic food production has not kept pace with rising population. Between 1990 and 1999, the annual rate of growth per capita food production declined or remained modest, varying from –1.9% in Mauritania to +1.9% in Chad and Cape Verde.

Sorghum ( Sorghum bicolor ) and pearl millet ( Pennisetum glaucum ) remain the main staple foods for the over 100 million people living in the west and central African semi-arid tropics (WCA SAT). These crops account for 70% of the total cereal cropping area, 60% of cereal production, 75% of total caloric intake, 52% of per capita grain consumption and 1/3 of protein content. Since 1984, production of these crops has increased due to area expansion into the marginal areas contributing to severe environmental degradation. Average yields of these crops, low by global standards, are decreasing, ranging from 300 to 1100 kg/ha for pearl millet and 500 to 1300 kg/ha for sorghum. Pearl millet and sorghum grain yields have increased in some countries and decreased in others. Average annual rainfall has decreased markedly over the past 30 years with estimates ranging from 100 to 200 mm/annum in all the semi-arid areas. This has led to a shortening of the length of the growing season in all the agro-ecological zones. Coupled with the trends of more extensive production on marginal lands and reduced length of fallows, ICRISAT regards it as a positive achievement that cereal productivity could be maintained at these levels. Sorghum and millet residues are stored and fed to ruminants during the dry season. These crops are poorly traded in the national, regional and international markets.

Contemporary issues, challenges and opportunities

Countries in the West African SAT cover an area of 5,339 sq km or about 22% of the total land area in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2000, these countries had a population of over 100 million. All these countries are classified by the United Nations as being among the least developed in the world. The low level of economic activity coupled with high population growth rates over the past decade has led to negative or stagnant growth in real per capita incomes. In many Sahelian countries, more than 30% of the population falls below the international poverty line of $1 a day and the same percentage is undernourished. Life expectancy at birth and the human development index indicate low levels of human welfare. Human population in these countries is projected to grow between 2.1 and 2.9% per year over the next 15 years.

Water, climate and soils

Water constitutes one of the most limiting factors to rainfed agriculture in the Sahel. The water limitation arises from low and variable rainfall, but is also partly due to high temperatures and solar radiation during the rainy season which cause substantial evaporation and reduce available soil water. Rainfall distribution is erratic with frequent drought periods of up to two weeks or longer. Rainfall data show the tendency for abnormal years of rainfall (with successive periods of deficit or excessive water) to occur continuously for as many as 15 years.

However the rainfall in West Africa shows some strong patterns of distribution, to which local varieties of cereals are very well adapted. It has been shown that the variability of the onset of rains is extremely high, and can occur from mid-May to mid-July, even in the Sudan Savannah zones. However, the end of the rainy season is much more stable, with a variability of 10 to 14 days for any one location. For each location the normal end of the rainy season is predictable, and is earlier in the more northerly locations, which also have a lower average annual rainfall.

The soils have low natural fertility. They are predominantly sandy with a low clay and organic matter content, and their effective cation exchange capacity is also low. Nitrogen and phosphorus are the most limiting nutrients, however other deficiencies (potassium, trace elements) and acidification are readily induced by intensified continuous cropping. Other physical properties of soils in the Sahelian systems that limit crop production potential include: (a) high bulk density and very low structural porosity; (b) a tendency for compacting and hardening during the dry season; (c) generally poor water infiltration due to rapid surface crusting of soils, except on eolian sandy soils, and; (d) increasing susceptibility to erosion with continuous cultivation. Annual losses of nutrients per hectare due to soil erosion and soil mining among other factors are important.

Genetic resources and crop improvement

The WCA SAT is a center of origin of pearl millet and the Guinea race sorghums. During the last 25 years, pearl millet, sorghum and groundnut improvement programs have developed and released a range of early to medium maturing new varieties which escape end-of-season drought and are tolerant/resistant to major pests (the parasitic weed Striga , head miner) and diseases (downy mildew, grain mold, foliar diseases, rosette, aflatoxin producing A. flavus ). Some of these varieties have been released but their utilization by farmers remains low. Reasons for the low uptake may relate to the low productivity gains, the unsuitability of varieties to farmer or market preferences, poor access to information on modern varieties, low access to experimentation or mostly the underdevelopment of seed markets and lack of availability of seed.

In WCA, as elsewhere, varietal improvement for yield is based largely on conventional breeding methods. Promising approaches include the development of hybrids that exploit heterosis, the novel shorter statured varieties based on highly adapted germplasm, and the characterization and use of a full range of genetic diversity. Molecular genetic tools are beginning to be applied; for example, molecular marker characterization of the structure of genetic diversity in Guinea race sorghums has been conducted.

A range of opportunities is available in the promotion of existing varieties preferred by farmers or required by the market. Farmers and processors need to be exposed to these technologies through participatory approaches. In addition, an assessment of institutional arrangements likely to improve a sustainable and consistent flow of seed to end-users is warranted.

Major sorghum insect pests include sorghum midge ( Contarinia sorghicola ) and a complex of head bugs ( Eurystylus immaculatus and others). The major insect pests of pearl millet in West Africa are head miner ( Heliochelus albi punctella ), stem borers ( Coniesta ignefusalis ) and blister beetles ( Psadolytta spp.). Striga hermonthica is a frequent parasitic weed of both sorghum and millet and constitutes a significant constraint, especially in areas where low soil fertility and continuous mono-cropping of cereals prevail. It has been estimated that grain production on 44 million ha in Africa is threatened by Striga, translating into a yearly economic loss of US$ 3 to 7 billion.

Regional surveys in the WCA SAT show that rural households have little access to key inputs (seed of improved varieties and fertilizers) because of poorly functioning, incomplete or underdeveloped markets and lack of infrastructure. When available, inputs are used on high value crops. Furthermore, farmers are often not aware of the existence of technologies and their potential benefits. Policies that could encourage the use of inputs, the output markets and linkages between input and output markets are also lacking.

Many studies in the SAT of West Africa show that households pursue a range of livelihood strategies and may diversify as a response to climatic, production and market risks. The returns to investment from cropping may be less than those from livestock activities or other alternative sources of income such as temporary migration, or off-farm agricultural employment. Therefore, farmers may not necessarily invest in cropping activities.

More than two decades have passed since the last village level studies in Burkina Faso and Senegal. These studies helped to understand household production and consumption decisions and set research priorities. Since then, many changes have occurred which deserve further understanding and could have a significant impact on poor livelihoods. Renewed efforts are necessary to understand these changes, identify development pathways and reset research priorities and development interventions.

In WCA, there is a weakness in agricultural research and development capacity not only at the national level but also in the NGO and private sectors, the latter being, as yet, barely developed. This lack of capacity is both at human and infrastructural levels and though the agricultural sector is recognized by WCA governments, there is presently no corresponding recognition of the need to provide adequate funding to R&D in this sector.

Eastern and Southern Africa (ESA)

Agriculture in the region

Agriculture constitutes the backbone of the economy in the ESA region; providing 60% of all employment; and is the main provider of industrial raw materials. In many of the countries, agriculture accounts for more than a third of the national gross domestic product. In rural areas, agriculture underpins livelihoods supporting 70 to 80% of the total population, including the majority of the extremely poor and malnourished.

Improvement of agricultural performance has the potential to increase rural incomes and purchasing power for large numbers of people. Thus, more than any other sector, agriculture can get people out of poverty on a massive scale. However, despite its dominant role in the economy, agricultural productivity has been either declining or stagnating behind population growth in several countries. The overlapping biotic and abiotic constraints and degradation of natural resources have often limited the productivity of smallholder agriculture.

Addressing these multiple constraints requires technical and institutional innovation and building local capacity to provide smallholder farmers with scientifically tested and knowledge-based options to improve productivity, competitiveness and harness changing market conditions.

Contemporary issues, challenges and opportunities

Poverty, food insecurity and malnutrition in the ESA SAT
Poverty, malnutrition, food insecurity and degradation of the natural resource base are major problems afflicting many countries in ESA. The region constitutes some 21 countries with a population of over 350 million people, more than half of which live in extreme poverty, making the region one of the highest concentrations of poor people in the world. Over the last decade, the region has witnessed increasing incidence of poverty through its various manifestations including an increase in the number of hungry and malnourished people. About 75% of the population lives in rural areas that account for over 80% of the total extreme poor. Unless interventions are designed to reverse the situation, this trend is projected to continue into the coming decades, making it impossible to come closer (much less to meet) the Millennium Development Goals of halving the number of people in absolute poverty and hunger by 2015.

The incidence and severity of deprivation is highest in the less-favored semi-arid and marginal areas that suffer from poor infrastructure, geographical isolation, poor market access, and vulnerability to climatic variability and drought. High levels of soil erosion, nutrient depletion and degradation of agro-ecosystems contribute to low productivity and declining ecosystem resilience in many areas. The magnitude of soil fertility depletion on arable lands is one of the highest in the world and by far exceeds the rates of nutrient replenishment through application of organic and commercial fertilizers.

Low productivity is due to degraded soils, lack of inputs and unfavorable weather conditions. Most of the resource poor farmers grow their crops in degraded soils without inputs such as chemical fertilizers or pesticides. Rainfall in the SAT is extremely variable in amount and distribution, making rainfed agriculture risky and thus preventing farmers from investing in inputs that enhance productivity. The area under irrigation is very low in sub-Saharan Africa, only 3.7% compared to 10% in South America, 29% in east Asia and 41% in southeast Asia.

Poor market access is a result of many factors such as the lack of a functioning marketing system that links the many small producers with domestic and international buyers. Several highly dispersed small producers supply non-homogenous products to local markets. Given the low productivity, the volume of marketable surplus is very low, and hence the transaction costs of marketing for individual farmers are high. Varieties currently grown by farmers are not able to satisfy the quality attributes required by diverse markets. Africa has poor infrastructure – roads are few and not well maintained, the railroad length is under 2% of the world total and dilapidated, storage and product handling systems are inefficient, all adding to the cost of doing business on the continent.

Poor dissemination of improved varieties is another challenge. Improved varieties that are adapted to target environments and both farmer and market needs have been developed but have not been disseminated. One of the major limitations of the technology delivery system is lack of an efficient and effective seed multiplication and supply system. While some effort is being made to improve seed availability by involving farmers and primary cooperatives in seed multiplication, the lack of quality control and low capacity at the local level are hurdles to progress. The extension systems in most African countries are weak, thus causing a bottleneck in technology dissemination.

Policy and institutional weakness is another hindrance to agricultural development. New capacities are required in both public and private sectors. A pro-poor agricultural policy is not in place and systems of rights of land tenure inhibit farmer investment in agriculture.

Capacity building in various sectors dealing with agriculture is weak, starting from research, extension, post harvest, linkages with markets and extending as far as trade-related negotiations. Investment in agricultural research and training is also inadequate.

Weak private sector : The private sector has a key role to play in agricultural development and economic growth in Africa. Many of the sub-Saharan countries have emerged from an economy dominated by the public sector in terms of research and provision of major services in input and output marketing of agricultural commodities. However, the dominance of the government and the public sector in African agriculture has not been effective in accelerating intensification of production, technology adoption and did not bring the desired growth. Despite the increasing interest in market development and private sector participation in agricultural transformation, many countries are far from achieving the desired outcomes.

HIV/AIDS pandemic: Sub-Saharan Africa is at the epicenter of the HIV/AIDS epidemic. The short-term effects have been a decline in agricultural labor, production and incomes and a concurrent and dramatic increase in expenditures on health and funerals. In the longer term, there will be loss in inter-generational transfer of knowledge and traditional social security mechanisms.

Asia

Agriculture in SAT Asia

Human well-being in the rural areas of SAT Asia remains highly dependent on agriculture and related employment possibilities. Access to productive assets (e.g., land) and new technologies is very crucial for equitable growth and sustainable food security. Under the influence of population growth and stagnation of the non-agricultural sector, land-person ratios have been declining progressively. Intensification of crop production and transformation of subsistence-oriented agriculture into more viable family farms through the adoption of green revolution technologies has counteracted this process of land scarcity in many more-favored regions. In the SAT and many less-favored regions, such transformation of subsistence agriculture has not occurred. This means that the rate of productivity growth in rainfed agriculture has been much lower than in irrigated regions.

Sorghum and millet are important grain crops of SAT Asia. Over the last three decades, the area planted to both crops has fallen by nearly one third. The area under rainy-season sorghum fell by nearly one half, while that under postrainy-season sorghum remains essentially the same. But there were productivity gains so that the production of these grains reduced less sharply. The area under other important SAT crops like pigeonpea, chickpea and groundnut has remained consistent during this period. Except for chickpea, the yield increases have been less sharp in these crops. New crops like maize, soybean and cotton have become popular in the SAT areas mainly because of their rising market demand.

The area under irrigation has increased even in the SAT areas and the irrigation coverage of traditional SAT crops has increased considerably. Crops like wheat, rice and vegetables have gained in area because of expansion of irrigation. Livestock enterprises have become more important contributors to the incomes of farm families. Besides the diversification of agriculture, the livelihood opportunities have also become more diversified due to opportunities thrown open in the non-farm sector. However, land degradation and ground water depletion have eroded the asset base of farmers considerably. They face rising costs of water exploration even to maintain the areas under irrigation.

On the whole, Asia has achieved impressive gains in food production, food security, and rural poverty reduction since the 1960s. Heightened intensification of agriculture through use of irrigation, fertilizers, and pesticides combined with high-yielding varieties and, in some countries, continued price support for the key cereals --- rice and wheat --- and subsidization of electrical power costs in more-favored, high-potential zones were, and continue to be, the major driving forces for this success.

However, many regions in less-favored, rainfed areas such as much of the SAT have not benefited enough from this process, and there is emerging pessimism among the world community that the MDGs may not be achieved by 2015. Evidence from literature suggests there have been sweeping changes in the village economies of the more favored regions of Asia in the last few decades, justifying a reassessment of R&D priorities in regions that have been bypassed. Although poor net food buyers in SAT Asia have also benefited from low food prices resulting from increased surplus in more-favored regions, small farmers in the less-favored regions with low crop yields and high costs of production have been adversely affected.

Contemporary issues, challenges and opportunities

Low productivity and rural poverty

Low productivity of SAT agriculture coupled with widespread poverty, water scarcity, degradation of natural productive resources (land and biodiversity), and a changing global environment are marginalizing agriculture and livelihoods in the Asian SAT. The emerging evidence of higher impacts on poverty as well as higher marginal productivity gains from public investments, particularly in roads, markets, information technology and research in the less-favored regions, suggests the need to prioritize these overlooked areas in terms of technology, institutions, and policy.

Despite the surplus reserve of grains, food insecurity and child malnutrition in SAT Asia remain at unacceptably high levels, both in favored and less-favored areas. Owing to the high levels of population growth and unequal access to productive assets, the gains from productivity growth in agriculture were not sufficient to bring down the levels of poverty. In 1999, South Asia alone accounted for over one half of the 1.1 billion poor people living in the developing world. India alone contributes over 70% of the absolute poor in South Asia and about one-third of the absolute poor in the developing countries. The incidence of poverty in the region ranges from 35% in India and Pakistan to 42% in Nepal. About three-fourths of the poor in the South Asian region are concentrated in rural areas. There is a paucity of data on spatial distribution of poverty based on the potential of agricultural land. More detailed poverty mapping needs to be carried out for a complete understanding of the concentration of poverty, its spatial distribution and the associated socioeconomic and biophysical factors that may explain the distribution.

South Asia alone accounted for almost all (236 of the 237 million) of the rural poor in SAT Asia and about 63% of the rural poor in the SAT worldwide. This also indicates that about 50% of the abject poverty in South Asia is concentrated in the SAT. There is shortage of data on the relative incidence of poverty within the rural populations in more-favored and less-favored regions. We may hypothesize that the relative incidence and depth of poverty is higher in marginal areas where the productivity of land is low, market access is limited and opportunities for non-farm employment are scarce.

Asia is the most populous and diverse continent in the world. Semi-arid tropical areas in Asia are largely concentrated in India, with some small areas distributed in Pakistan, Myanmar, Thailand, Yemen and Indonesia. South Asia, which has most of the SAT area, had a per capita availability of only 163 kg of cereals, 22 kg of roots and tubers, 27 kg of sugar, 11 kg of pulses, 8 kg of vegetable oils, 5 kg of meat and 68 kg of milk per year during the triennium 1997-99. East Asia scored better with a per capita availability of 199 kg of cereals, 66 kg of roots and tubers, 12 kg of sugar, 2 kg of pulses, 10 kg of edible oils, 38 kg of meat and 10 kg of milk. In terms of per capita daily consumption, South Asia consumes only 2403 calories as against 2921 in East Asia, 2681 in the developing countries and 2803 in the world. India's SAT areas have the highest poverty incidence of 24% when compared to other agro-climatic regions. South Asia accounts for the highest number of people earning less than $1 a day among all the regions of the world.

Water scarcity and resource degradation

Agriculture and livelihoods in the SAT have evolved under the influence of biotic (pest and disease incidence) and abiotic constraints. The most binding abiotic constraints are related to water scarcity and poor fertility of soils (largely related at present to micronutrient deficiencies as N and P fertilizers are widely used). The limited fresh water availability and seasonal variation and unreliability of rainfall make agriculture in the semi-arid regions inherently risky. In rainfed systems of the SAT, the constant risk of drought increases the vulnerability of livelihoods and decreases human security. Since water is vital for crop growth, the low and unreliable rainfall in the SAT for rainfed agriculture makes drought management a key strategy for agricultural development in these regions. Apart from the tightening water scarcity constraint, degradation of soil resources (due to salinization, waterlogging, soil erosion and nutrient depletion) threatens livelihoods and sustainability of food production across the SAT region.

Globalization and marginalization

With increasing strides towards globalization of markets through domestic market reforms that encourage integration and liberalization of import and export markets, production efficiency and competitiveness of agricultural products within the domestic market and international markets is becoming an important policy issue in the agricultural sector. In the past, macroeconomic policies and R&D investments in many developing countries targeted food security and self-sufficiency in major food products. With increasing openness in the global economy, national self-sufficiency may not be a viable development strategy, as certain food products may be cheaper to import than to produce domestically. However, considering agriculture's role as a means of livelihood for millions of poor people, enhancing its competitiveness by cutting average costs of production is critical for the survival of many smallholder farmers.

Accessing domestic and global markets requires investment in new cost-reducing or yield-enhancing technologies as well as basic marketing infrastructure. Investments in irrigation to boost yields and reduce production risk, extension services, supply of credit facilities, and required inputs at the right time to supply the desired high quality and competitive products is essential for competitiveness of production. Identifying niche markets and comparative competitive advantages and harnessing such niches are challenges to many poor nations lacking the requisite human, organizational and technological skills. For countries lagging behind in terms of technological advances and development of efficient market structures, there is a risk that globalization may lead to further marginalization and poverty. Similarly, without adequate investment in productivity-enhancing technologies and basic infrastructure and human resources, less-favored areas poorly serviced in the past in terms of these investments, may lose out even further as agricultural markets become more liberalized and competitive. This means that globalization and increased market liberalization could further marginalize these areas, potentially leading to worsening poverty and environmental degradation.