May 2008

 

Battling Rising Food Prices with Productivity-Boosting Science

Food is one of the few things in life that have gotten substantially cheaper over the past half-century, largely due to new technologies and supportive policies.

But a worrisome new trend has emerged. Recent price increases for ICRISAT crops (upturns at right side of graphs below), though much less than for rice and wheat are still significant (about 20-40% for sorghum / millet and 10-20% for the legumes), and remain on a steep upward path as we now enter the “hungry season” of 2008.

 

Sorghum and millet prices since 1961.

 

Chickpea and groundnut prices since 1961.

To be sure, price spikes due to unforeseen events occured in the past, most notably in association with the sharp oil price increases in the early 1970’s. But grain prices subsided after these unpredictable shocks dissipated, and resumed their downward trend.

Its different this time

So should we just wait and weather the storm until it moves on? Unfortunately, experts say that this time it’s different. Fundamental changes are raising the cost of agriculture for the longer term, such as rising fuel costs, a growing middle class that demands more food, and the use of maize grain by the bioethanol industry. Our sister center IFPRI (International Food Policy Research Institute), using a predictive model, estimates that real (inflation-adjusted) prices of cereals will continue to rise by another 10-20% by 2015.

But aren’t rising food prices good for the rural poor who earn their living by growing and selling food? Again the answer seems to be, not this time. For one thing, the poorest farmers, due to small landholdings and low productivity, tend to be net buyers rather than net sellers of food so they are hurt more than helped by rising food prices.

Second, their costs of production, particularly for fertilizer are going up even faster than food prices. The value of a kilogram of fertilizer doubled relative to a kilogram of sorghum or millet grain over the past eight years in Niger, and the trend strongly accelerated over the past six months, far outpacing gains in food prices. Since fertilizer requires large amounts of energy to produce, higher prices seem here to stay.

To counteract these dramatic increases in costs and demand and bring food prices back to levels that the poor can afford, agriculture needs to make big leaps in productivity and fertilizer use efficiency. But is this possible, or have ceilings been reached?

Reaching for more

Now some good news. Major gains are indeed possible for both yields and fertilizer efficiency. We know from our research that on-farm yields of cereal crops in drylands can be doubled or tripled with modest inputs, such as low rates of fertilizer combined with highly responsive crop varieties, particularly hybrids, and low-cost rainwater harvesting.

Lifting the bar of productivity

I’ll illustrate the transformational potential through a few examples of exciting initiatives that we’re engaged in with our partners. IFPRI has identified needed policy measures, so I’ll focus on what new technologies and market-chain partnerships could deliver.

Planting basin cultivation begins by hand-scooping small basins (photos left and below) that concentrate rainwater and plant nutrients at the base of the plant, where roots are most dense. Small microdoses of fertilizer, less than a tenth of the rates applied in developed countries, in combination with small amounts of manure and improved crop varieties (especially hybrids)

Improved crop varieties use fertilizer more efficiently, are more resilient to stresses (drought, pests, diseases etc.), and incorporate grain quality traits that markets will pay more for. Hybrid varieties can turbo-charge yields through their fertilizer responsiveness and robust vigorous growth. Improved seed systems are required to multiply these seeds and get the right varieties to the right locations at the right time.


Tree-crop integration through ICRISAT’s Dryland Ecofarm system improves the recycling of nutrients through deep roots and leaf litter, protecting soils from erosion while nutritionally enriching them. This boosts the yield of crops grown between them, while the trees also yield higher-value products such as fruits, gums, cosmetics, and renewable energy (firewood).

Inexpensive gravity-fed drip irrigation enables farmers to produce more crop per drop, and multiplies their incomes through high-value vegetable and tree products. Situated near urban areas, these lush African Market Gardens connect farmers to increasingly affluent middle class markets, giving them easy access to better technologies and infrastructure.

High-value indigenous fruits such as Zizyphus mauritania
(Pomme du Sahel-left) as well as cucumbers (right) lift rural
incomes in Niamey, Niger.

Integrated pest management cuts the costs and hazards of pesticide sprays on legumes, allowing farmers to garner higher prices from organic food markets. The pull of urban and export markets for chickpeas, pigeonpeas and groundnuts ties farmers to processors and marketers who in turn provide farmers with new technologies that help all partners remain competitive and profitable.

High value chili peppers grown organically using integrated pest
mangement and careful water control help poor farmers in dry land India
benefit from rising food prices.


Sweet sorghum beats the food-fuel tradeoff problem: both are produced on the same plant, along with vital livestock feed (after crushing to remove the sugar-rich juice that ferments into bioethanol, the residual stalks make excellent fodder). By connecting to a huge, growing and remunerative market for transportation fuel through technology-savvy processors, sorghum farming jumps severalfold in productivity.

Now more than ever

During the 1990s, the world grew complacent. Food prices had declined for so long that it was assumed that investments in agricultural research and development could be allowed to decline along with them.

Now we’ve received a harsh wake-up call. Unless we re-invigorate agriculture and lift it to a new level of productivity and efficiency, the world will face more hunger, more poverty, more despair, and more anger.

We do not have the luxury of an easy excuse. We can’t say that “it can’t be done”, because we know it can be.

The change that is needed is within our reach, but we have to stretch to grasp it. It is our choice, and we will be judged on that choice by those we serve: the poor and the hungry.

 

Sincerely yours,

William D. Dar
Director General